The annual event, this year held at the Roundup Centre, featured several speakers who shared insights to the current international economic and housing situation and forecast for 2009.

A similar theme could be traced throughout each presentation: in Alberta, the housing market will begin to stabilize in 2009. Alberta, known for its oil- and gas-rich lands, began booming in 2006 as migrant workers from provinces such as Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia began heading west for jobs. As more people moved into the province, Calgary grew from just fewer than 900,000 people in 2001, to cross the one million mark in 2007.

“Calgary is still amongst the fastest growing metropolitan areas in Canada,” says Lai Sing Louie, senior market analyst, CMHC Prairie and Territories Region. “Over 50 per cent of the growth is through net migration and it continues to be an important factor to Calgary’s population growth.”

Although the market is down overall for 2008 in such areas as housing prices, MLS sales and housing starts, 2006 was an anomalous year and the numbers being seen now are right on par. The market is not “crashing,” but instead simply correcting itself to more reasonable levels.

The economic crisis in the U.S. will, of course, have an impact on Canada, but experts expect the country (and Alberta especially) to feel less of the impact due to strong economic factors from a record-high employment rate and record-low unemployment, to moderate mortgage rates and growing incomes.

“We’ve had very strong growth in personal disposable income, and that’s one of the things that has really helped support housing markets in Canada,” says Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist. “A strong labour market with growing incomes; those two things have really had a positive impact on the housing market.”

As with last year, 2009 will remain a buyers’ market, leaving people eyeing a condo, townhome or multi-family home purchase in a good bargaining position. With the influx of condos on the market and still under construction, vacancy rates will rise, meaning more options for renters and potential landlords.

It’s been a rollercoaster ride for the past few years, but the market seems to have reached its bottom, at least in Canada, and is expected to stabilize in 2009 or perhaps even grow later in the year, predict the housing market pros.

Canada will not follow in the footsteps of its neighbour to the south in part due to the banking systems in place across the nation. While the U.S. is in a crisis over mortgages in arrears, Dugan says Canada’s share of mortgages in arrears is near its most moderate level since 1990. People investing in real estate are building, and keeping, equity in their homes. As of December 2007, more than 52 per cent of homeowners who bought from 2003 to 2007 in the prairie provinces had home equity of 40 per cent or more­—B.C. had just over 39 per cent of homeowners.

Although Alberta’s total housing starts declined in 2008 and will continue to do so in 2009, new communities like Auburn Bay and Silverado in southeast Calgary grew more than 100 per cent. As well, MLS sales are expected to experience a slight up-turn in 2009 from the previous year.

“Overall, we are in buyers’ market conditions, (but) buyers’ market conditions do not last forever,” says Louie. “Moving into 2009, we’re looking for more balanced conditions.”  CL